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Reliability Analysis Method for Predicting Characteristic of Storm in India


Dilip Kumar , LNMIPPL


Storm, Tropical Cyclone, North Indian Ocean Cyclone Track Forecasting, Cyclone Forecasting Techniques, Cyclone Forecasting Models, Artificial Neural Networks


Most of the countries round the Ocean are vulnerable by storm surges related to severe tropical cyclones. The destruction as a result of the storm surge flooding may be a serious concern on the coastal regions of Bharat, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Oman. Storm surges because significant loss of lives and property harm to the coastal structures and losses of agriculture that cause annual economic losses in these countries. These and most of the world’s greatest natural disasters related to the tropical cyclones are directly attributed to storm surges. The most objective of this text is to focus on the recent developments in storm surge prediction within the Bay of geographic region and also the Arabian Sea. Delivering correct cyclone forecasts in time is of key importance once it involves saving human lives and reducing economic loss. Difficulties arise as a result of the geographical and climatological characteristics of the varied cyclone formation basins aren't similar, that entails that one prediction technique cannot yield reliable performance altogether ocean basins. For this reason, world prediction techniques ought to be applied beside basin-specific techniques to extend the forecast accuracy. As cyclone track is ruled by a variety of things variations in weather, wind pressure, ocean surface temperature, air temperature, ocean currents, and also the earth’ move force the Coriolis force, it's a formidable task to mix these parameters and turn out reliable and correct forecasts. In recent years, the provision of appropriate information has augmented and a lot of advanced prediction techniques are developed, additionally to recent techniques having been changed. Specifically, artificial neural network primarily based techniques are currently being thought-about at earth science offices. This new technique uses freely offered satellite pictures as input, will be run on commonplace and may produce forecasts with good accuracy. For these reasons, artificial neural network based techniques seem especially suited for developing countries which have limited capacity to forecast cyclones and where human casualties are the highest.

Other Details

Paper ID: IJSRDV4I120612
Published in: Volume : 4, Issue : 12
Publication Date: 01/03/2017
Page(s): 869-873

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